Monday, October 01, 2012

Market Holding Strong at +13 Percent


History & Future. The nationwide housing market basically stopped in 2007 dropping the average home price in the US downward by about a third by the start of 2012. Future predictions on when the housing market will return to historic highs range from the near future of 2016 to 2018 all the way out to CNN’s recent 2023 prediction. A quote from CNN’s article, “Fiserv forecasts prices will bounce back an average of 3.7% a year for the next five years -- a rate that would still leave prices 20% below the peak”.

 

Locally the number of sales dropped in 2007 a bit (down 14%) and plummeted downward an additional 43% in 2008 to finally bottom out in 2009 with another drop of 25% - total drop from 06 to 09 was 63%. Interesting though is that Summit County had a peak in average sold price while the number of sales plummeted and that average sold price has been in a downward movement ever sense. Although 2012 is starting to show signs of change and the next three months of sales will be the deciding factor on average sold price for the year.

 

What is, almost, for sure today is that 2012 will be the third year of improving number of properties sold and with a gain of 13% as of today (if the market retains that gain through the end of the year) the number of sold properties by the end of 2012 will show a year ending at -49% below the peak in 2006. The market is improving and still has a ways to go to get back to or even near the peak.

 

Locally again, Vail was quoted as estimating the 2013 year as being “the continuation of a challenging, but stable economic environment”. What will our local real estate market do in 2013? Will it move forward for another year of positive gain in the number of sales? Will it stall during the first quarter as buyers adapt to changing times? The management group at RE/MAX met the other day and discussed this briefly and had varied resulting crystal balls from a high of plugging along as we have been with an 8 to 12% gain in 2013 in the number of sold properties to a definite stall resulting a declining year and a more challenging market.

 

The reality is that we have been in a changing and challenging market now for 5 (almost 6) years and anyone that has endured knows that what is needed to succeed is a strong plan, consistent execution of that plan and business skills. Those producing today are the same individuals that are seen in the office frequently working in a definite direction with a set of skills that have resurfaced from the 90’s, recently learned and or relearned. The market is what the market is and you can’t change the market, but you can change how you react to the market in order to achieve any level of success – but, heck this is nothing new and in three months our market will be what it has been for 6 years.

 

Interesting.

 

Today sales are up 13%, average sold price is up 1% and the average sold price per square foot is down about 3%. The average sold price is up countywide that 1%, up a whole lot more on the North Side of the County and flat in the South Side and yet the average sold price per square foot is down across the board or county. This past week the number of properties that went under contract is up again over last year by 64% this time…another great week!
 
To review all the current market statistics click the link below: