History & Future. The nationwide housing market
basically stopped in 2007 dropping the average home price in the US downward by
about a third by the start of 2012. Future predictions on when the housing
market will return to historic highs range from the near future of 2016 to 2018
all the way out to CNN’s recent 2023 prediction. A quote from CNN’s article,
“Fiserv forecasts prices will bounce back an average of 3.7% a year for the
next five years -- a rate that would still leave prices 20% below the peak”.
Locally the number of sales dropped in 2007 a bit
(down 14%) and plummeted downward an additional 43% in 2008 to finally bottom
out in 2009 with another drop of 25% - total drop from 06 to 09 was 63%.
Interesting though is that Summit County had a peak in average sold price while
the number of sales plummeted and that average sold price has been in a
downward movement ever sense. Although 2012 is starting to show signs of change
and the next three months of sales will be the deciding factor on average sold
price for the year.
What is, almost, for sure today is that 2012 will be
the third year of improving number of properties sold and with a gain of 13% as
of today (if the market retains that gain through the end of the year) the
number of sold properties by the end of 2012 will show a year ending at -49%
below the peak in 2006. The market is improving and still has a ways to go to
get back to or even near the peak.
Locally again, Vail was quoted as estimating the 2013
year as being “the continuation of a challenging, but stable economic
environment”. What will our local real estate market do in 2013? Will it move
forward for another year of positive gain in the number of sales? Will it stall
during the first quarter as buyers adapt to changing times? The management group
at RE/MAX met the other day and discussed this briefly and had varied resulting
crystal balls from a high of plugging along as we have been with an 8 to 12%
gain in 2013 in the number of sold properties to a definite stall resulting a
declining year and a more challenging market.
The reality is that we have been in a changing and
challenging market now for 5 (almost 6) years and anyone that has endured knows
that what is needed to succeed is a strong plan, consistent execution of that
plan and business skills. Those producing today are the same individuals that
are seen in the office frequently working in a definite direction with a set of
skills that have resurfaced from the 90’s, recently learned and or relearned.
The market is what the market is and you can’t change the market, but you can
change how you react to the market in order to achieve any level of success –
but, heck this is nothing new and in three months our market will be what it
has been for 6 years.
Interesting.
Today sales are up 13%, average sold price is up 1% and
the average sold price per square foot is down about 3%. The average sold price
is up countywide that 1%, up a whole lot more on the North Side of the County
and flat in the South Side and yet the average sold price per square foot is
down across the board or county. This past week the number of properties that
went under contract is up again over last year by 64% this time…another great
week!
To review all the current market statistics click the link below:
